In the occupied southern region of Kherson, posters with an image of a HIMARS system and words threatening retaliation against the Russians for “looting, killing, raping, destroying” appeared in July. Now, the Eastern European countries most worried about a future Russian attack are arming themselves. Poland and the Baltic states have learned that they are among the most effective weapons to stop the Russian advance in Ukraine and are ordering hundreds of launch systems at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak announced on May 26 that he had ordered 500 HIMARS launchers plus ammunition – a huge number that he said would involve extensive co-production. Estonia would buy six launchers and ammunition worth $500 million, the US State Department said on July 15. Latvia made public its request for $300 million in launchers and rockets a week later. And Lithuania is expected to follow suit. “The agreement on the disengagement of Odessa would have been impossible without HIMARS. It is now very clear that the war will end sooner if we arm Ukraine faster,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said on July 22, referring to Russia’s agreement to allow Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea. “The Baltic will become a single theater of war for Russia,” said Estonian Defense Minister Kusti Salm, explaining the regional coordination of defense procurement. Latvia and Estonia have talked about getting the latest, 300km ATACM (Army Tactical Missiles) for their launchers. From the border of Estonia, they could easily hit St. Petersburg. From Latvia, they could strike halfway to Moscow, stopping any invasion force long before it reached the border. From the borders of Poland and Lithuania, they could strike almost anywhere in the territory of Belarus, Moscow’s only regional ally, whose territory was used as a rallying point for the attack on Kiev. “We will force our enemy to raise the price of aggression. If they know we can destroy certain kinds of targets, they should start looking for alternatives. However, these are significantly more expensive. Attacking Estonia, the Baltic states and NATO will become much more complicated and expensive for the enemy,” Salm said. The United States military is set to field an even more advanced HIMARS-launched missile, the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), with a range of 500 km (310 miles). If this is handed over to regional allies, they could strike in the Moscow region. [Al Jazeera]
What makes HIMARS so effective?
Ukraine has reportedly destroyed Russian ammunition depots, command posts and air defenses using just eight HIMARS launchers, each of which has six launch tubes armed with conventional Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) missiles with a range of 80 to 120 km (50 to 75 miles). ) range. These became operational in Ukraine on June 25. By July 16, Ukraine’s defense ministry said Kyiv had destroyed at least 30 logistics hubs deep behind enemy lines. A week later, US Pentagon sources spoke of 100 high-value targets being hit. The attacks threw a wrench in Russia’s strategy. Moscow’s main territorial gains in the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk came thanks to the concentration of overwhelming firepower superiority. Ukrainian troops who survived tactical retreats on these fronts spoke of an inability to do anything but cover. Attacks on Russian logistics hubs allowed Ukraine to undermine the source of Russian power. For their part, Kremlin officials denied Kiev’s claims, countering that Russian forces struck HIMARS ammunition depots in Ukraine. Australian retired General Mick Ryan believed that HIMARS “changed the battlefield calculus in the fight for Ukraine,” allowing the Ukrainians to pursue what he called a “strategy of eroding” Russian capabilities and morale, which brought them victory in the battle for Kyiv. Retired U.S. Army General Mark Hertling called HIMARS a “game changer,” helping Ukraine gain the upper hand. What makes HIMARS ideal for this job is the accuracy of the system. “HIMARS, together with GMLRs, achieve remarkable strike accuracy,” said Konstantinos Grivas, who teaches advanced weapon systems at the Hellenic Military Academy. “The Russians have nothing similar because these systems were developed by the Americans as a type of sniper artillery for use in difficult environments like Fallujah [in Iraq]where you had to hit the target precisely because it was surrounded by civilians. “If there’s a building you’re taking fire at within the urban environment, target that building from up to 80 kilometers (50 miles) away, and within minutes of taking fire land a missile on that building.” The secret to the missiles’ accuracy is an inertial navigation system – a collection of gyroscopes and accelerometers – that tells the missile its exact position relative to its target, allowing for a hit accuracy of three to five meters (10-16 feet) maximum range. Equally important, experts said, is the intelligence network that provides coordinates to the shooter, and US military officials have said they have shared such information with Ukraine. The system is particularly economical. Individual GMLRS missiles cost about $100,000. The S300 anti-aircraft batteries and ammunition depots they have destroyed in Ukraine cost millions of dollars, and the psychological impact of Russian soldiers knowing they can be attacked far behind the line of contact is incalculable. Russia has responded to HIMARS by moving some of its logistics closer to urban centers. For example, the military intelligence service of Ukraine reported that Russian occupation forces delivered truckloads of artillery ammunition for storage at the municipal theater of Kherson on the night of July 11. Grivas believes that using cities as shields “will not affect HIMARS because it is designed for such urban warfare.” Ryan recently wrote, “Because it is a mobile system, HIMARS is also able to stop, fire, and then quickly move away. This ensures that it is a highly survivable weapon system in an age where the time between detection and destruction can be just minutes.” According to Ukrainian commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny, an important factor contributing to the preservation of defensive lines and positions was “the timely arrival of the M142 HIMARS, which carries out targeted strikes on enemy checkpoints, ammunition and fuel depots.” A senior US military official described HIMARS as “a thorn in the Russian side… that has a very significant impact on the Russians’ ability to conduct offensive operations… the ability of these men and women to fire, move and stay alive is simply extraordinary. “ US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley also recently praised the Ukrainian human factor. “The fact that the Ukrainians were able to rapidly develop these systems speaks volumes for their ability, their ingenuity, their artillery ability, their gunnery ability, their determination and their will to fight,” Milley said.
How many systems will it take to win?
Military commanders have cautioned that HIMARS is not a silver bullet given the small number of systems in play. On July 20, the US said it was sending four more, bringing the total to 16, with an apparent goal of reaching 20. However, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov recently said that Ukraine needs 100 HIMARS launchers to reverse Russia’s territorial gains. The definition of Ukraine’s victory is the complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Crimea and the Donbas region, which seceded in 2014, as well as from the territories seized since February 24 of this year. Publicly, the US, NATO and the G7 have said as much, but it is clear that within NATO some prefer a more cautious approach. Given the effective use of HIMARS, some questioned why Ukraine did not receive more. “We’re trying to be responsible,” a senior U.S. military official told a reporter recently. “We’re also balancing our readiness” because the HIMARS systems being sent to Ukraine come from US stockpiles. But there also seems to be a sense that the US is trying not to provoke Russia by giving Ukraine the means to inflict a humiliating defeat. The United Kingdom has announced that it is sending an unspecified number of M270 multiple launch missile systems to Ukraine, each of which corresponds to a pair of HIMARS. “We are not the only ones providing this type of capability,” the senior US military official said. “There will be a synergy of those effects,” he said, referring to other countries’ procurement and suggesting there is perhaps an upper limit to what the US wants to achieve.
