The EU Commission first unveiled the 15% target in its Saving Gas for a Safe Winter plan last week, which included a proposal for a new law that, if passed, would give it the power to force states to meet the mandatory reduction targets in exceptional circumstances. But objections from some countries in recent days have prompted the bloc to make key concessions, taking into account their differing levels of dependence on natural gas and storage levels. The EU will now exempt countries that are not interconnected with other members’ gas networks from the mandatory 15% demand reduction target, as they “will not be able to free up significant volumes of natural gas for the benefit of other member states”. The Council of the EU, the bloc’s political union, said in a press release. The Council also laid out a number of scenarios that would allow the reduction target to be relaxed, including where states exceed natural gas storage targets or are highly dependent on natural gas to power critical industries. “I know the decision was not easy. But I think, in the end, everyone understands that this sacrifice is necessary,” said Jozef Síkela, the Czech minister of industry and trade, who holds the rotating presidency of the EU Council. in a press. conference. “We must and will share the pain.”
Sikela added that the countries reached a “satisfactory compromise”. The plan has yet to be written into law — at least 15 of the bloc’s 27 member states, representing 65% of its total population, have yet to approve the proposals. Separately, the bloc will need to take a different vote on the Commission’s proposal to impose mandatory reduction targets.

The turbine is missing

Meanwhile, a natural gas emergency is developing in Europe. Gazprom, Russia’s state energy company, said on Monday it would shut down a gas turbine on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for repairs, reducing flows to 33 million cubic meters per day from Wednesday — or just 20% of its daily capacity. Natural gas was flowing at 40% capacity after Russia cut exports in response to Western sanctions. Cadre Simpson, the European energy commissioner, called the latest cut “a politically motivated step” on Tuesday. He added that Gazprom’s announcement “underlined once again that we must be ready for possible supply cuts from Russia at any time.” The news sent benchmark prices in Europe up 10 percent on Monday versus Friday, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange. Flows through the pipeline – which last year carried 40% of the bloc’s total pipeline imports from Russia last year – had already fallen by two-thirds in June after Gazprom accused the West of blocking the return of another turbine from Canada , where it was being repaired. Last week, Gazprom reopened the Nord Stream 1 pipeline after 10 days of routine maintenance work. Many EU officials had worried that Moscow would use the opportunity to keep the taps off in retaliation for sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Europe’s fears were well-founded – Russia has cut off gas supplies to many European countries and energy companies in recent months – Gazprom has restarted flows without problems, although it is still at just 40% of pipeline capacity.
Earlier this month, the Canadian government said the Siemens-made turbine could be returned to Germany under sanctions relief. But on Monday, Gazprom said paperwork received by Siemens to repatriate the turbine had not resolved some problems, again raising the specter of another cut in gas supplies to Europe.

Bad timing

The very real danger that Moscow could turn off the taps has energized the bloc to find alternative energy sources and quickly fill gas storage facilities before winter. Ending Russian gas imports will be no small feat for many EU countries that have historically relied on supplies from Moscow to power their homes and industries. According to the International Energy Agency, the country accounted for about 45% of the bloc’s total natural gas imports in 2021. He has already made great strides. The EU is moving quickly to reduce its dependence on Moscow anyway, increasing imports of liquefied natural gas and pledging to cut its consumption of Russian natural gas by 66% before the end of the year. But a historic heat wave that led temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in parts of the continent last week caused a surge in demand for air conditioning. Earlier this month, Enagas, the operator of Spain’s natural gas transmission system, said demand for natural gas to generate electricity had hit a new record of 800 gigawatt hours. “This huge increase in natural gas demand for electricity generation is mainly due to the high temperatures recorded as a result of the heat wave,” Enagas said in a press statement last week. High demand for natural gas combined with greatly reduced Russian flows could severely limit Europe’s ability to fill up its storage before temperatures start to drop in a few months. The bloc has set a target for member states’ gas outlets to be at least 80% paid by November. It is currently around 67% full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. This is much more than the same period last year. But Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, last week described the situation in Europe as “dangerous” and said it should prepare for a “long, hard winter.” According to the IOC, even if European countries manage to fill their natural gas storage facilities to 90% of their capacity, they are likely to face supply disruptions early next year if Russia decides to cut off gas deliveries from October. — Alex Hardie contributed reporting.