Vladimir Putin is choking off the country’s natural gas supplies – officially due to “substantial repair work” on the pipelines, although few doubt he is taking revenge for Berlin’s indifference to Ukraine. Flows through Nord Stream 1, Germany’s main gas pipeline, are now at 20% of normal levels. There are fears it could soon close for good. This has sparked warnings of energy cuts for both households and businesses, which, in worst-case scenarios, could force entire industries to shut down. Domestic energy bills could triple, pushing already high inflation by another 2%. £240 billion could be wiped from the economy, with the aftershocks felt in 2024. “Germany is on the brink of recession,” top economist Clemens Fuest said yesterday. Others worry that the entire Eurozone could soon turn upside down. To avert a disaster, EU leaders agreed today to cut gas use by 15 percent, but Germany – which imports the most Russian gas of any member state by far – faces double that. Economy Minister Robert Habeck says he’s taking shorter showers, while regional leaders are dimming street lights and closing swimming pools. The fiasco is a legacy of Angela Merkel, who ignored 15-year-old warnings from her own top energy expert Claudia Kemfert that over-reliance on Russian energy would make the country vulnerable. As Viktorija Starych-Samuolienė, co-founder of the think-tank Council on Geostrategy, told MailOnline: “Germany is in for a tough winter because of its heavy reliance on Russian gas. “Despite repeated warnings about the dangers of this dependence, successive German governments have only deepened it, opening the country to the risk of Russia doing exactly what it appears to be doing – using natural gas as a weapon.” Germany is by far the biggest importer of Russian gas in the EU – buying around 52 billion cubic meters of gas in 2020 according to figures from the bloc. The next largest is Italy, with 28 billion Despite importing so much natural gas, it makes up a smaller part of the energy used in Germany than in other European countries (pictured) – but it runs critical manufacturing industries and is also used to heat homes and hospitals Germany is not alone in relying on Russian gas to power its economy, with around 40 percent of the EU member state’s total gas consumption coming from its eastern neighbor. But years of deliberate policymaking have made Germany uniquely vulnerable to Russian threats to cut gas flows. First, there is the sheer volume of natural gas that Berlin imports – nearly 52.5 billion cubic meters in 2020, according to EU figures, which is roughly double that of the next-closest nation, Italy, with 28 billion. Second, Germany produces almost no natural gas of its own: imports account for 95 percent of annual use, powering key manufacturing industries as well as heating hospitals, nursing homes and homes. Third is the method of delivery: Natural gas comes exclusively to Germany by pipeline, which unlike other European nations has no ports capable of receiving liquefied natural gas. Of those funneling natural gas to Germany, Russia is by far the largest – accounting for 55 percent of pre-war imports – followed by Norway, Algeria and Qatar. Latest: Nord Stream 1 is by far the most important route for transporting Russian gas to Germany, capable of carrying almost all of its daily needs – although small amounts also arrived via the Yamal pipeline from Belarus and Poland and the Soyuz passing through Ukraine. It means that by shutting down a single pipeline, Russia could have cut off more than half of Germany’s natural gas imports and left Berlin with very few ways to switch supplies at short notice. The situation has improved somewhat since the war broke out. Berlin has managed to reduce Russian imports to about a third of its foreign supplies, and two LNG ports are under construction at Wilhelmshaven and Brunsbüttel, overlooking the North Sea. The first will come online late this year and the second early next – allowing the country to further reduce its reliance on Russian imports in 2023. But neither will come quickly enough to help this winter. Chancellor Olaf Solz, caught completely off guard by the war in Ukraine, has set a target for German energy companies to fill gas tanks to 90 percent – a task made difficult by the fact that the storage facilities, many owned by Russian companies. falling very low at the time Putin ordered his invasion. Companies are set to miss that target, the country’s regulator said on Monday, which according to IMF models could mean the country will have very low supplies until the winter of 2026/27. Nord Stream 1 is the main pipeline carrying natural gas to Germany and is slowly shutting down from Russia – ostensibly due to repair work, although few doubt that it is actually designed to punish Berlin for its opposition to the war in Ukraine Germany imports 95 percent of the natural gas it uses, more than half of which comes from Russia in a typical year. The vast majority of that gas arrived via Nord Stream 1, a pipeline that Moscow is now strangling If temperatures fall significantly below average during this period, then shortages will be more pronounced. That could force entire industries to close, Economy Minister Robert Habeck recently warned, as unions warned that many companies would not survive the upheaval. Germany has offered bailouts to every company struggling in the energy crisis and has already handed over £15 billion to one of its biggest energy companies – Uniper – which was at risk of collapse last week. Under federal law, German households are currently protected from rationing, but ministers and officials have begun to warn that this may have to change. The country lacks the infrastructure to physically regulate supplies to homes, so the most likely way gas will be distributed is through a spike in prices. Klaus Müller, head of the federal energy grid, said household bills were set to triple “at least” from next year – urging people to start saving now to get by. Despite the deepening crisis, Scholz ruled out keeping Germany’s remaining nuclear power plants – mothballed by Merkel – running. The last three are due to go offline by the end of the year. Politicians say the cost of extending their life is too great compared to the benefit they would provide, although critics point out that the ruling Green party has long been ideologically opposed to nuclear power. Instead, the country is being forced to restart old coal-fired power plants despite long-term commitments to cut emissions to meet environmental targets. Coal is widely regarded as the most polluting fuel source. Mr Habeck talked about reducing the time he spends in the shower and urged other Germans to do the same. Industries are also encouraged to reduce the use of natural gas. Already, regional leaders and big companies have talked about reducing central heating in homes, dimming lights, closing swimming pools and rationing hot water. The crisis is likely to become so acute that Deutsche Bank predicts that large numbers of Germans will resort to using wood burners to heat their homes this winter, instead of boilers. Angela Merkel ignored 15-year-old warnings from Germany’s top energy expert that over-reliance on Russian gas was making the country vulnerable (pictured with Putin in 2021) All of this plays right into the hands of Vladimir Putin, who hopes the crisis will weaken Europe’s stronger-than-expected resolve to oppose his war in Ukraine and lead to some kind of peace deal that favors Russia. Moscow has denied that the drop in natural gas supplies is war-related, saying instead that the turbines that pump the gas need to be repaired and are to blame. But experts point out that whenever the turbines have needed regular maintenance in the past, Russia has boosted supplies through its other lines to cope. That didn’t happen this time. Instead, the gas flow was slowly throttled. Russia cut flows to 40% of their normal level in mid-June, shortly before Nord Stream 1 was shut down for routine repairs. Many in Germany feared it would not reopen afterwards, and while that nightmare scenario has not come to pass, the flow has fallen again and is now at just 20 percent of normal levels. At the same time, Russia has completely cut off supplies to countries such as Poland and Finland that have taken stronger positions on Ukraine – ostensibly because they refused to pay in rubles – further exacerbating the crisis. That led Berlin to press for a voluntary 15 percent cut in gas use across the continent agreed today, although there were already signs of eroding unity. Spain and Greece – whose economies were strangled by Germany after being given bailouts after the 2008 financial crash – are strongly opposed, sarcastically telling Berlin to “live within its means”. Poland, which has led Europe to stand up to Russia, also argued that no country should be forced to cut back on industrial gas use to help other states facing shortages. As the days darken and the weather cools, tensions are likely to rise further – to Moscow’s delight and Kiev’s fear.
