Questions remain about whether insurers will be willing to insure the ships as they sail through mined waters, while buyers are reluctant to place new orders given the risk of Russian attacks. Russian missiles hit the main port of Odessa on Saturday, just 12 hours after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu signed an agreement in Istanbul guaranteeing the safe passage of Ukrainian exports. Russia later said it had targeted a Ukrainian vessel in port carrying Western weapons, but did not provide evidence. Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, Oleksandr Kubrakov, said Monday that the first ships would leave Black Sea ports this week, despite the attacks. Kubrakov, who signed on behalf of Kiev, said that while Ukraine does not trust Russia, it “trusts its allies and partners, which is why the agreement … was signed with the UN and Turkey, not with Russia.” . A spokesman for the ministry said it was working to implement the plans as early as this Friday or early next week. Map of the Black Sea and surrounding countries. But markets are cautious. They are waiting to see what happens before placing new orders, according to Masha Belikova, agriculture expert at commodity price reporting service Fastmarkets. “[Exporters] they were very pessimistic and are still very pessimistic about the deal,” Belikova said. “First and foremost is this [they] he can’t trust Russia, so any deal with Russia doesn’t really count as a deal.” The overall priority of exporters and buyers, Belikova said, is to move grain loaded onto ships that have been sitting in Ukrainian ports since the invasion. If everything goes smoothly, Belikova said, then they will start thinking about moving what is stored in the ports. “Maybe then, if everything goes well, they might think about new transactions,” Belikova said, referring to the new orders. “At the moment, they don’t think it’s possible.” Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of wheat, corn and sunflower oil in the world. Russia’s invasion and naval blockade of Ukraine’s ports have sent world food prices soaring, pushing some countries, such as Somalia, toward starvation. One of the big issues raised by the industry is who will insure such a dangerous journey. “It’s really difficult to guarantee any safety for the crew, for the cargo, for the people working in the port,” Belikova said. “What if they decide there’s a military item – just shut down the terminal?” Subscribe to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7am. BST There is talk that Turkish merchant ships may be used for future exports as ships from the rest of the world may be more wary of the risks, said Tim Worledge, also of Fastmarkets. However, Turkish ships tend to be smaller, carrying just 10,000-15,000 tons, while the type of ships previously operating from Ukraine tended to carry 40,000-70,000 tons of cargo, Worledge said. For the past five months, Ukraine has been using the shallow-water ports along the Danube, which borders Ukraine and Romania, and Ukrainian Railways has been working to increase rail exports to Europe. Ukraine now exports up to 2 million tons of grain and semolina per month through these channels, Belikova said. Before the war, the total was between 6 and 8 million tons per month. Russia’s incursion and approach to negotiations, including its attack last Saturday, has made buyers think about diversifying their supplies, Worledge said. Ukraine’s infrastructure minister said exports would start from Chornomorsk port, the closest port to Ukraine’s border with Romania. Belikova said that according to shipping data, there were at least 10 ships that had been docked in the port since February 24, amounting to more than 600,000 tons.
