The war in Ukraine has only heightened those concerns, as Biden and other top officials watch nervously to see what lessons China can learn from the Western response to Russia’s aggression. Meanwhile, China’s President Xi Jinping – with whom Biden is expected to speak this week – is believed to be setting the stage for an unprecedented third term as president in the fall, adding to tense geopolitics in the region. Biden’s call with Xi was in the works before Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan was made public, officials noted. Administration officials have shared concerns not only about Pelosi’s safety during the trip, but also about how China might respond to such a high-profile visit. With China recently reporting its worst economic performance in two years, Xi is in a politically sensitive spot ahead of a key meeting on extending his reign and could use a political victory, multiple officials told CNN. While Biden’s aides have ideas about how he might respond, they are unsure which direction the Chinese leader will take. It is against this heightened backdrop that Pelosi has proposed visiting Taiwan with a congressional delegation, a trip she has so far declined to confirm publicly. But that didn’t stop China from attacking, saying a visit would violate US policy toward the island. China’s Ministry of National Defense said on Tuesday that Pelosi’s trip should be cancelled, warning that China’s military “will resolutely defend national sovereignty” if faced with “external forces” encouraging Taiwan independence. “China demands that the US take concrete actions to fulfill its commitment not to support ‘Taiwan independence’ and not to arrange Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan,” Defense Ministry spokesman Tan Kefei said on Tuesday in response to questions about Pelosi’s reported trip to Taipei. “If the US insists on following its own course, the Chinese military will never stand idly by and will definitely take strong action to prevent any foreign power interference and separatist plans for ‘Taiwan independence’ and resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Tan added. Because Pelosi is in the presidential line of succession, the administration takes extra care about her safety when she travels abroad, the White House said Tuesday. That includes creating a footprint on the ground based on location and environment, sometimes using military assets, according to John Kirby, the communications coordinator at the National Security Council. “We take those commitments seriously,” Kirby said, although he reiterated that Pelosi has not announced any travel plans to visit Taiwan.
The administration lays out the risks for Pelosi
Behind the scenes, Biden administration officials are working to explain the potential risks of a visit to meetings with Pelosi and her team. Pentagon officials briefed the speaker last week on Taiwan and heightened tensions in the region, according to people familiar with the matter. White House officials were also present at the briefing. The President hinted last week that the US military was opposed to Pelosi visiting Taiwan now, but the White House declined to expand on his comments. Even Pelosi said during a press conference last week that she wasn’t sure exactly what Biden meant. “I think what the President was saying is that maybe the military was afraid of my plane being shot down or something. I don’t know exactly,” he said. The White House said Tuesday it had provided Pelosi with information about her potential trip. “I’ll let the speaker talk about her travel plans. Our job is, of course, to make sure she has all the context and information before she travels anywhere. But this kind of rhetoric coming out of the Chinese side is clearly unhelpful and it’s not necessary,” Kirby told CNN’s “New Day.” “There is no call for this kind of escalating rhetoric,” Kirby added. “Again, none of this should turn into a conflict. Nothing has changed about our policies regarding One China or supporting Taiwan’s ability to defend itself. So there is no reason to escalate this, even only in rhetoric.”
Possible trip comes at a tense time in China
Administration officials worry that Pelosi’s trip comes at a particularly tense time, as Xi is expected to seek an unprecedented third term at the upcoming Chinese Communist Party congress. Chinese party officials are expected to begin laying the groundwork for that conference in the coming weeks, putting pressure on the leadership in Beijing to show strength. Officials also believe that the Chinese leadership does not fully understand the political dynamics in the United States, leading to a misunderstanding about the significance of Pelosi’s potential visit. Officials say China may be mistaking Pelosi’s visit for an official government visit since she and Biden are both Democrats. Administration officials worry that China doesn’t separate Pelosi from Biden much, if at all. Instead, the politics around potential travel have been reversed somewhat. Several Republicans have encouraged Pelosi to go ahead with her plans, arguing that it would be a strong stance against China, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. “Nancy, I’ll go with you. I’m banned in China, but not liberal Taiwan. See you there!” Pompeo tweeted this week. Pelosi has long cultivated a tough stance on China. He issued a powerful statement in June on the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, reminding everyone that he helped unfurl a banner there two years after the massacre that read: “To those who died for democracy in China.”
Biden is looking for stability
Biden, who has sought to stabilize ties with China through regular talks with his counterpart, is planning a phone conversation with Xi this week in which the issue of Taiwan is likely to come up. He last spoke with Xi in March, when he worked to persuade the Chinese leader not to support Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine. Officials are closely watching how Beijing responds to the invasion, hoping that the West’s mostly one-size-fits-all response — including a withering series of economic sanctions and billions of dollars in arms shipments — proves enlightening as China considers its actions toward Taiwan. Kirby said Tuesday that China is monitoring the global response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as it plans its next steps in Taiwan, saying, “I’m sure they’re monitoring it in real time,” but that “there’s no reason to move. kind of conflict”. US officials believe there is a small risk that China will miscalculate in responding to a Pelosi visit. Biden administration officials are concerned that China could seek to declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan ahead of a possible visit in an attempt to derail the trip, potentially further escalating tensions in the region, a US official told CNN. That remains a remote possibility, officials said. More likely, they say, is the possibility that China will further step up flights into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense zone, which could prompt renewed discussions about possible responses from Taiwan and the US, the US official added. They did not specify what those possible answers would entail. While the administration has not, and does not plan to, formally tell the speaker not to travel to Taiwan, officials have been candid in briefings about the risks associated with a trip. People familiar with the matter say they hope to quietly convince Pelosi of the dangers of the trip without explicitly telling her not to go. In the end, the speaker will make her own decision, Biden officials noted. CNN’s Kylie Atwood, Barbara Starr, Betsy Kelin, Yong Xiong and Hannah Ritchie contributed to this report.
