But the debate now is about the impact of the US-made Himars cruise missile, which Ukrainian forces are using to halt the Russian advance by hitting ammunition dumps in the rear – 50 according to the country’s Defense Minister, Oleksiy Reznikov – and whether they can to create the conditions for a successful advance to Kherson, one of the largest cities captured by the invaders. Kherson, captured in early March, has long been the focus of the Ukrainians, with the defenders making limited gains in the countryside between Mykolaiv and the target city since April. But, apparently helped by the longer-range weapons, with an effective firing range of up to 50 miles (80 kilometers), the Ukrainians are becoming more confident. Sergiy Khlan, assistant to the administrative chief of the Kherson region, told Ukrainian television that a turning point had been reached and that the region “will definitely be liberated by September.” It’s a bold claim based on the available evidence, and it’s perhaps no surprise that Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has talked about liberating Kherson “step by step.” The Khymaras – of which Ukraine has 12 with four more on the way – appear to be having an impact in allowing Kiev’s forces to target four key bridges leading into Kherson. The city, the only Russian stronghold west of the Dnieper River, is obviously strategically vulnerable if Ukraine can muster the strength to repel the invaders. But the story of the bridges partly illustrates some of the difficulties Ukraine faces in recapturing its population centers. Khlan’s social media posts make it clear that Ukraine’s goal is not to destroy key bridges, in this case the Dariv Bridge across the Inhulets River east of the city, but rather to damage them to the point where the Russians cannot to carry heavy equipment through them. The Ukrainian military wants to ensure that food supplies can still get through to the city, so, Khlan added, the country’s armed forces will “do everything possible not to destroy the structure.” This can be a difficult balance to strike, even allowing for the greater accuracy of the Himars – but more importantly it reveals a key limitation in the Ukrainians’ ability to fight back. map latest version 09.43 Russian officials, according to the RIA Novosti news agency, identified damage to another of the key bridges, near the Kakhovka hydroelectric station, across the Dnieper, about 40 miles east of Kherson. The damage, the Russians said, came from Kheimar artillery, but the news agency later published photos showing workers apparently filling a hole in the road. If cutting off the city by destroying the bridges is a challenge, then taking it, given the remaining civilian population, will be more difficult. Russia has shown that it is willing to destroy cities like Mariupol and Severodonetsk before taking them. But for Ukraine – seeking to liberate its own territory – this is clearly not an option. Displacing the Russians may be difficult if they choose to stay in the city itself. Nor is it obvious that the arrival of a longer-range weapon can create the conditions for a more rapid overall advance. Ukraine lacks substantial air power, so it must rely on mustering a preponderance of ground forces against an enemy that has held the city for nearly five months. Meanwhile, Western supplies continue to arrive gradually and not in the numbers Ukraine needs. Subscribe to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7am. BST Reznikov said on Monday that the first three of 15 Gepard mobile artillery guns promised by Germany in April had arrived in Ukraine and that he hoped to deliver several dozen Leopard tanks soon – likely from Spain. The growing supply may help Ukraine tip the balance on one part of the front, but so far there is no evidence that the defenders can make a breakthrough. After four months of gradual Russian advance to the east and south, the arrival of the Kheimar and rocket artillery appear to have tipped the military balance towards an equilibrium. But it is not yet clear that the invaders can be overthrown: perhaps it is no wonder that Khlan then optimistically suggested that the best option for the Russians was to surrender Kherson voluntarily.
