Officials told The Associated Press that if Pelosi moves to Taiwan — still uncertain — the military will increase the movement of forces and resources to the Indo-Pacific region. They declined to give details, but said fighter jets, ships, surveillance assets and other military systems would likely be used to provide overlapping rings of protection for her flight to Taiwan and any time on the ground there. Any foreign travel by a senior US leader requires additional security. But officials said this week that a visit to Taiwan by Pelosi – who would be the highest-ranking elected US official to visit Taiwan since 1997 – would go beyond the usual security precautions for travel to less dangerous destinations. Asked about planned military measures to protect Pelosi in the event of a visit, U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Army Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Wednesday that it was premature to discuss any specific trip. But, he added, “if a decision is made that President Pelosi or anyone else is going to travel and they request military support, we will do whatever is necessary to ensure that their visit is conducted safely. And I’ll leave it at that.” China considers self-ruled Taiwan its own territory and has raised the prospect of annexing it by force. The US maintains informal relations and defense ties with Taiwan, even though it recognizes Beijing as the government of China. The trip comes at a time when China has escalated what the US and its Pacific allies describe as dangerous one-on-one confrontations with other militaries to assert its sweeping territorial claims. Incidents have included dangerously close flights forcing other pilots to swerve to avoid collisions or harassing or obstructing aircrew and ships, including with blinding lasers or water cannons. Dozens of such maneuvers have taken place this year alone, Eli Ratner, assistant US defense secretary, said Tuesday at a forum on the South China Sea by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. China denies the incidents. The US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security issues, described the need to create buffer zones around the speaker and her plane. The US already has significant forces spread across the region, so any increased security could be largely met by resources already in place. The military should also be prepared for any eventuality — even an accident either in the air or on the ground. They said the US should have rescue capabilities nearby and suggested they could include helicopters on ships already in the area. Pelosi, D-Calif., has not publicly confirmed any new plans for a trip to Taiwan. She was supposed to go in April, but postponed the trip after testing positive for COVID-19. The White House on Monday declined to immediately look into the matter, noting that it had not confirmed the trip. But President Joe Biden raised concerns about it last week, telling reporters the military believes her trip is “not a good idea at this time.” A Pelosi trip may well be foreshadowed after a conversation scheduled for Thursday between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, their first in four months. A US official confirmed plans for the call to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity ahead of the official announcement. U.S. officials said the administration doubts China will take direct action against Pelosi herself or try to sabotage the visit. However, they do not rule out China escalating provocative overflights by military aircraft in or near Taiwan’s airspace and naval patrols in the Taiwan Straits if the trip takes place. And they do not rule out Chinese actions elsewhere in the region as a show of force. Security analysts were divided Tuesday over the extent of any threat during a trip and the need for any additional military protection. The biggest risk during Pelosi’s trip is some Chinese show of force “going awry, or some kind of accident resulting from a show of provocative energy,” said Mark Cozant, deputy director of the Center for International Security and Defense Policy at the Rand Corp. “So it could be an air collision. It could be some kind of missile test, and again, when you do things like that, you know, there’s always the possibility that something could go wrong.” Barry Powell, director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, scoffed at US officials’ reference to the possibility of aircraft carriers and warplanes to ensure the speaker’s safety. “Obviously, the White House doesn’t want the speaker to go, and I think that’s why you’re getting some of these proposals.” “He’s not going to go in an armada,” Pavel said. They also said the increased US military presence to protect Pelosi risked raising tensions. “It’s very possible that our efforts to prevent actually send a very different signal than what we intend to send,” Cozad said. “And so you get into… sort of an escalating spiral, where our efforts to prevent are actually seen as more and more challenging and vice versa. And that can be a very dangerous dynamic.” On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Beijing had repeatedly expressed its “official position” on a possible Pelosi visit. He told reporters that China is ready to “take firm and strong measures to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Milley said this week that the number of intercepts by Chinese aircraft and ships in the Pacific region with US and other partner forces has increased significantly over the past five years. He said that Beijing’s military has become much more aggressive and dangerous, and that the number of unsafe interactions has increased in similar proportions. These include reports of Chinese fighter jets flying so close to a Canadian air security patrol last month that the Canadian pilot had to swerve to avoid a collision, and another close call with an Australian surveillance flight in late May in which the Chinese crew released a flurry of metal debris that was sucked into the other plane’s engine. U.S. officials say the prospect of an interception or show of force by Chinese aircraft near Pelosi’s flight raises concerns, prompting the need for U.S. aircraft and other assets to be nearby. The US aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and its strike group are currently operating in the western Pacific and visited Singapore over the weekend. The strike group includes at least two other Navy ships and Carrier Air Wing 5, which includes F/A-18 fighter jets, helicopters and surveillance aircraft. Before retiring to Singapore’s port, the strike group operated in the South China Sea. In addition, another Navy ship, the USS Benfold, a destroyer, has been conducting freedom of navigation operations in the area, including a passage through the Taiwan Straits last week.
Knickmeyer reported from Washington.
