The forecast, which some industry sources said should be treated with caution, follows a rise in gas prices in Europe as Russia cut flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Energy-focused management consultancy BFY said it now expects the October price ceiling to reach £3,420, while a subsequent rise in January could reach £3,850. This would mean household energy bills would have trebled in a year, given the cap was set at £1,271 at the start of 2022. BFY said the average customer could end up “facing a bill of just £500 in January”. . A source at a major energy company said they believed the forecast was surprisingly high, with the figure closer to the £3,300 already predicted by energy analyst Cornwall Insight. Cornwall is expected to update its own forecasts, taking into account fresh gas price rises in Europe, early next week. Kremlin-controlled gas company Gazprom said earlier this week it would cut flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% of capacity, a threat it has faced. He blamed the problems with the turbines, which he said were exacerbated by Western sanctions imposed over the invasion of Ukraine. Subscribe to the Business Today daily email or follow Guardian Business on Twitter @BusinessDesk Europe is trying to reduce dependence on Russian gas, with rationing now an option for the coming winter. The BFY forecast will put pressure on the UK government to provide more help to struggling households. Former chancellor Rishi Sunak, who is challenging Liz Truss to become the next prime minister, said this week he would temporarily scrap the 5% VAT rate on domestic energy bills. If bills do rise as high as BFY predicts, this will save the average household £192, compared to an increase last year of more than £2,500.
