“The International Space Station is considered the most complex engineering, scientific, collective human achievement ever accomplished,” says US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). But as relations between Russia and the West grow increasingly strained over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, officials in Moscow announced Tuesday that Russia will opt out of the ISS after 2024 and focus on building its own competitive infrastructure overseas. space. On Wednesday, Russian space officials told their US counterparts that Moscow now expects to remain on the ISS at least until its own orbiting outpost is built in 2028, NASA’s space operations chief told Reuters. Regardless, analysts say they worry that Russia leaving one of the last remaining vestiges of cooperation with the West will delay scientific research and potentially lead to increased militarization of space.
“There have been rumblings about this for a while, but it’s a sad day,” said Mubdi Rahman, founder of Sidrat Research, a Toronto-based space technology company. “Even before the invasion of Ukraine and the whole of it [Russian President Vladimir] With Putin’s various attacks, there has been some fragmentation in the space community with nations wanting to go it alone.” CBC News analyzes what Russia’s move means for the ISS, space exploration and the politics of the great beyond. WATCHES | Russia to abandon ISS due to war tensions in Ukraine:

Russia snubs space station partners over war tensions in Ukraine

Russia is giving its partners on the International Space Station the cold shoulder over tensions caused by the war in Ukraine. Images circulating of Russian cosmonauts holding flags in support of pro-Russian separatists have prompted rare statements from space agencies in Canada, the US and Europe.

Who is currently on the ISS?

First launched in 1998, the main organizations working on the station, according to NASA, include the space agencies of the United States (NASA), Russia (Roscosmos), Canada (CSA), Japan (JAXA), and Europe (ESA), which includes the following participating countries: Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Russia and the US, however, are widely seen as the key players, analysts said. Canada’s contribution, for example, represented only about 2.3 percent of the station, said Adam Sirek, a professor at Western University’s Institute for Earth and Space Exploration in London, Ont.

Why is Russia leaving now?

With Russian forces shelling Ukrainian cities and Western sanctions hitting Moscow’s economy, there have been rumblings for a while that Russia might abandon the ISS.
Yuri Borisov, who heads Russia’s state-run Roscosmos, made the announcement of Moscow’s planned withdrawal from the initiative on Tuesday during a meeting with Putin. Russian President Vladimir Putin participates in a video call with the ISS crew at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow in 2020. (Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik/Kremlin Pool Photo/The Associated Press) Russia, Borissov said, would honor all of its current operational commitments before leaving. Russia had previously signaled that it intended to abandon the station after 2024, while NASA wanted to keep it operating until 2030. Some analysts, however, see Russia’s announcement as more of a PR move than anything. “It’s a non-story in my view,” Michael Byers, a University of British Columbia professor who studies outer space policy, said of Russia’s announcement. “The Russians say this periodically,” he wrote in an email. they then continue to work on assignments. A NASA spokesperson told CBC News that the agency is committed to operating the ISS until 2030. “NASA has not been informed of any decisions by any of the partners, although we continue to build future capabilities to ensure our significant presence on low Earth orbit.” When asked about Russia’s withdrawal from the station, a CSA spokesperson told CBC that it is aware of the press reports “but has not been informed of any decisions by any of the partners.” WATCHES | US must move fast on ISS, ex-astronaut says:

US must move fast on International Space Station: former NASA astronaut

Russia’s planned withdrawal from the International Space Station means the US will have to move quickly to fill the station, says former NASA astronaut Garrett Raisman. “We should have seen this coming,” he said.

What is Russia currently doing on the ISS?

Russian cosmonauts, technology and transportation systems are responsible for a number of key functions of the ISS. Russia mostly built one half of the station that started in 1998, while the US built the other half. The ISS was originally designed so that technology could be shared between different countries. Participants depend on each other. For example, NASA’s solar panels provide much of the station’s power, while Russian technology stabilizes the ISS, keeping it where it needs to be in orbit around Earth. “Sharing resources to do research in space has been the focus of the ISS program,” Sirek said. In addition, Russia has been responsible for transporting cosmonauts to the station for recent missions. NASA has outsourced shuttle missions to private companies like SpaceX. “To be honest, the US and the rest of the world still don’t have a viable, well-tested solution to get to the ISS,” said Rahman of Sidrat Research. “Russian space vehicles were the reliable ones that took people to the ISS.” This image shows the various contributions to the ISS from different countries. Russia has four. (NASA)

Are tensions between the West and Russia affecting work at the station?

Geopolitical disputes have not visibly spilled onto the decks of the ISS. Just last week, Russian and European astronauts were on a seven-hour spacewalk together, where they installed platforms on the ISS, deployed nanosatellites and replaced a protective window, according to NASA. There is currently no suggestion from Russian officials that Moscow will stop providing transportation or other support to the station before they abandon the program. Earlier this month, before Tuesday’s announcement, NASA and Roscosmos announced a swap agreement that would see NASA astronaut Frank Rubio fly aboard the Russian Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft in September, and Russian cosmonaut Anna Kikina with the SpaceX’s Crew-5 Dragon. Nothing was said in Tuesday’s announcement to suggest that those pre-existing partnerships would be scrapped. WATCHES | Canadian citizen heads to ISS on historic private mission:

Canadian joins historic private mission to International Space Station

Businessman and philanthropist Mark Pathy is part of a four-person crew that made history Friday on the first civilian mission to the International Space Station. The mission isn’t all about space tourism—crew members plan to conduct several science experiments during their visit. If Moscow leaves as planned, getting spare parts for Russian-made components at the station is bound to be difficult in light of sanctions and general supply chain problems in building new parts from scratch, Rahman said.

What’s happening on the ISS?

The station hosts a number of research projects that could not be carried out anywhere else. For example, it is used to conduct experiments on how long-term weightlessness affects the human body, according to NASA, and is “the only place to test technologies that will take humanity further into space.” CSA and Roscosmos are also coordinating many projects on the ISS, Western University’s Sirek said, including research into space radiation to enable humans to live longer from Earth. “These collaborations and partnerships using Russian technology and parts of the Russian portion of the ISS have increased Canadian research output,” Sirek said. MDA, the Ontario-based company behind Canadarm2 on the ISS and a key Canadian company involved with the station, declined to comment.

Is Russia’s move a precursor to a new arms race in space?

Space technology is already vital to military campaigns on Earth, including the war in Ukraine, Rahman said, as nations struggle to maintain control of sensitive information and communications systems. “That’s why nations like China and India make sure they have an operational and well-funded space program,” he said. The ISS is photographed by crew member and cosmonaut Pyotr Dubrov from the Soyuz MS-19 spacecraft, in this image released April 20. (Pyotr Dubrov/Roscosmos) For now, Rahman said, it’s unclear whether Russia’s recent move could spark a return to the 1980s and fears about space-based lasers or the “Star Wars” program to shoot down intercontinental ballistic missiles. But he says the move is likely to unnerve military planners and dampen hopes for cooperation on joint scientific projects to benefit humanity. “The militarization of space happens the moment the missile is launched,” Rahman said. “There’s a lot more going on than what the public is aware of.”