Sir Stephen Lovegrove, 55, said the erosion of backdoor channels resulted in an increased chance of accidental escalation into war. In a speech in Washington at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, he said he believed the deterioration in communication with China and Russia had created a greater risk of a “rapid escalation into strategic conflict”. “The two monolithic blocs of the Cold War, the USSR and NATO – although not without disturbing bumps – were able to reach a common understanding of doctrine that is currently absent,” he said. “Doctrine is opaque to Moscow and Beijing, let alone Pyongyang or Tehran.” Lovegrove, who was appointed to the senior Whitehall defense role in March 2021, added: “During the Cold War, we benefited from a series of negotiations and dialogues that improved our understanding of Soviet doctrine and capabilities and vice versa. This gave us both a higher level of confidence that we would not miscalculate our course in nuclear war. “Today, we do not have the same foundation as others who may threaten us in the future – particularly China. Here the UK strongly supports President Biden’s proposed talks with China as an important step.” A Russian MIG-31 fighter jet carrying a Kinzhal hypersonic missile. The missiles have been developed in Ukraine and are said to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Photo: Maxim Shipenkov/EPA Joe Biden, the US president, is expected to speak by phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday – their first conversation since March – in a bid to ease tensions over Taiwan. Taiwan’s troops have been training to fight off an invasion as tensions with Beijing escalate over plans by Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, to visit the self-ruled island. China insists that Taiwan, which has its own democratically elected government, is its sovereign territory and is determined to reunify the island, by force if necessary. Last year, Beijing tested a hypersonic missile that circled the globe before hitting a target. China, Russia and the US are also developing supersonic missiles that travel at more than five times the speed of sound and can maneuver in mid-air. Lovegrove praised the White House’s decision to re-engage with China, but also highlighted the dangers of technological progress. “We have clear concerns about China’s nuclear modernization program that will increase both the number and types of nuclear weapons in its arsenal,” he said. Sir Stephen Lovegrove, left, met his US counterpart Jake Sullivan at NATO headquarters in Brussels in October. Photo: Virginia Mayo/EPA Russia became the first country to use hypersonic systems during a war when Moscow deployed its Kinzhal missiles in Ukraine. The Kremlin claims the missiles are capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president, said in a speech earlier this month that Western support for Ukraine had caused the most serious crisis in relations between Russia and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Despite the increased risks, Lovegrove said much of the existing architecture remains “vital,” such as the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. But he added that the reality is “that current structures alone will not deliver what we need a modern arms control system to achieve.” Subscribe to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7am. BST On the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the former permanent secretary of the Ministry of Defense said: “We recently passed the grim milestone of 150 days since Putin launched this unprovoked, illegal war, bringing untold suffering to the innocent people of Ukraine. “I fear that the conflict fits a pattern of Russia acting deliberately and recklessly to undermine the global security architecture. “This is a pattern that includes the illegal annexation of Crimea, the use of chemical and radiological weapons on UK soil and the repeated violations that led to the collapse of the INF [intermediate-range nuclear forces] condition. “And we will continue to hold Russia accountable for its destabilizing actions as an international community.”
