The US House speaker’s possible visit to Taiwan is at the center of spiraling tensions involving the island, China and the US, which analysts fear are at their most dangerous point in decades. Military activity in the region is also raising concerns, with reports of a US strike group moving through the South China Sea and a Chinese armed drone flying east of Taiwan as the island began its annual defense exercises. Texas Republican and senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael McCaul, and Democrat Anna Esu, described by NBC as a close Pelosi ally, told NBC on Wednesday that they had been invited to Taiwan by the Pelosi. Both were rejected due to scheduling conflicts. The comments from McCaul and Eshoo are the first apparent confirmation of the planned trip since it was reported last week by the Financial Times. There has been no official confirmation from the speaker or the White House, and Taipei will not comment until there is. Proponents of the trip say it would be a strong show of support for Taiwan, which Beijing claims is a breakaway Chinese province that must be reunified, by force if necessary. However, some expressed concern that the timetable – reported to be next month – comes at a particularly sensitive time in domestic Chinese politics that could prompt a more aggressive response from Chinese President Xi Jinping. “Any member who wants to go, should. It shows political deterrence to President Xi,” McCaul told NBC. “But [Pelosi] he should also pay attention to the military if he is going to cause a blow and escalate things.” Beijing has strongly objected to a visit by Pelosi, who would be the highest-ranking US government official since then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich visited in 1997. Officials have warned of “consequences” if the visit goes ahead, with some speculation military activity could escalate or cause an accident. In recent years the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) air force has sent increasing numbers of warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) amid an increase in “greyzone” activities designed to test Taiwan’s response and deplete resources her. On Monday, Japan’s defense ministry said a Chinese armed reconnaissance drone flew near Taiwan on a solo mission for the first time. It tracked the PLA’s TB-001 drone through the Miyako Strait, from the East China Sea to the Pacific near Taiwan. The next day, Taiwan’s president boarded a warship in the area to inspect defense exercises, prompting some analysts to suggest the drone flight was a warning. Taiwan’s military drills this week are planned annually and are not specifically linked to current events. It was unclear where the drone’s journey ended, with some news outlets reporting that it circled the island. The Guardian has not confirmed the reports. Here is the tracking map provided by the Japan MOD of the PLA drone on Monday. There are some reports that he circled the island, but did he? Were they still out there when Tsai boarded a warship off Yilan? pic.twitter.com/PFttFpar7Q — Helen Davidson (@heldavidson) July 28, 2022 Taiwan’s ministry did not report the sighting, although it reported other sorties by PLA aircraft in the southwest of the ADIZ that day. Chinese state media seized on Taiwan’s silence, accusing it of failing to detect the drone, showing “huge gaps in its air defense systems”. Tensions surrounding a Pelosi visit and heightened activity have fueled concerns that the situation could escalate, but some analysts have cautioned against linking military movements. “For Taiwan, China’s military threats are always there,” said Fang-yu Chen, a political science fellow at Soochow University. “I’m not saying they’re not a threat. I mean, the threats are so common that we don’t need to over-interpret them.” On Wednesday, US officials said that if Pelosi goes to Taiwan, the US military will increase the movement of forces and resources to the Indo-Pacific. On Thursday, the South China Morning Post reported that a US strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, left Singapore – where it was conducting a port visit – bound for the South China Sea. It was previously deployed in Yokosuka, Japan. The reason for his current trip was unclear, and the US mission in Taipei declined to comment.
