Comment TAIPEI, Taiwan — President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are speaking Thursday morning amid angry warnings from Beijing that the bilateral relationship cannot make progress unless the White House stops House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) visit Taiwan. The call comes at a time of rising tensions over China’s increasingly aggressive meetings with the U.S. and its military partners in the Indo-Pacific, a possible planned trip by Pelosi to Taiwan and Biden’s seemingly unexpected assertions that the U.S. will defend the island militarily — statements the White House withdrew. Growing friction has added to differences over trade, technology, security and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That call, which began earlier this morning, is the fifth between the two leaders and was expected to be lengthy, allowing for translation. While trade and human rights issues are expected to be discussed, the Taiwan issue – the most contentious in the bilateral relationship – and security challenges in the region, with China’s increased activity in the South China Sea, are major areas of engagement, people familiar with the matter said. the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. The Chinese Communist Party, although it has never ruled Taiwan, insists the self-ruled island of 23 million is part of its territory and has threatened to use force if the democratically elected government in Taipei declares formal independence. Taiwan sharpens invasion response amid China threats over Pelosi’s trip “If Pelosi leaves, then that will really push things over the edge and break the guardrails of the relationship,” said Lu Xiang, director of research at the Hong Kong Chinese Institute, an affiliate of the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Sciences. He added that Beijing does not accept the argument that Biden cannot block Pelosi’s visit because of the separation of powers, and instead sees her potential trip as a sign of the administration’s willingness to move away from fundamental understandings of the US-China relationship. At the end of the Trump administration, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Beijing considered the relationship at its worst point since diplomatic ties were established in 1979. Four previous phone calls between Xi and Biden, as well as numerous lengthy meetings between top diplomats, have not produced significant relaxation. In a meeting with Foreign Minister Antony Blinken earlier in July, Wang handed over four lists that Beijing hopes will guide the relationship, including one on “US offenses that must be stopped” and another on areas of possible cooperation if sanctions are reduced. tensions. Progress on areas of common interest will be impossible until the Taiwan issue is resolved, Lu said, adding that China found Biden more understandable than Donald Trump because the latter was “deliberately unpredictable,” while the current administration appears to Beijing to be “unintentionally unpredictable” and unable to impose a clear policy on Taiwan. He noted that the severity of the dispute over Pelosi’s visit could cause the leaders’ call to be delayed or canceled. The administration fears that a Pelosi trip to Taiwan could spark a cross-strait crisis The United States maintains that its policy on a China – which neither disputes nor supports Beijing’s territorial claims and is deliberately vague about whether the US military would intervene in a conflict in the straits – remains unchanged. Xi and Biden’s last phone call, in March, focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact of the crisis on US-China relations. Biden warned Xi that there would be consequences if Beijing helped Russia financially or militarily in the war against its neighbor, officials said at the time. White House officials have since said they have seen no “systematic efforts” to help the Russians evade sanctions and export controls. The call also comes as Xi prepares for a twice-a-decade political meeting, the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, where he is expected to take a third term as the party’s general secretary, cementing his position as China’s most powerful leader since Mao. Che Tung. The call was in the works before the controversy over Pelosi’s trip erupted. But tensions flared this month after Beijing threatened consequences if Pelosi followed through with her planned visit to Taiwan in August, vowing to take “strong measures” in response. Although delegations of lawmakers make periodic trips to Taiwan — Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) was there this month and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) visited from May 30 to June 1 — Pelosi would be the first female speaker of the House to visit since Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) in 1997. The Biden administration is increasingly concerned that such a trip now — ahead of the major party conference in the fall — could provoke China to respond in a way that sparks a crisis in the Taiwan Straits and defense, military and of information have made a vigorous effort to identify the risks to the speaker’s office. Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, personally briefed Pelosi. The aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and its strike group, meanwhile, returned to the South China Sea after a port visit to Singapore, Reuters reported on Thursday. Biden himself, however, has not spoken to Pelosi. That may convince her, analysts said, but the administration, saying it respects the separation of powers, “doesn’t want to appear that Biden turned it off,” said a person familiar with the matter. Analysts Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund, and Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, argued in an op-ed in the New York Times that China and the US are on “a collision course across the Taiwan Strait.” and that Pelosi’s visit could provide the “single spark [that] could ignite this combustible situation into a crisis that escalates into military conflict.” But some former US officials downplayed those fears, saying a military conflict was unlikely. In the short term, said a former senior US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, “the administration fears that a freeze in relations resulting from a Pelosi trip could close the lines of communication for the responsible link management. “ The former official added, “But in the medium term, it opens up space for allies to show more public support for Taiwan by citing the US example. This has been the trend in recent years. If the United States makes things more open, others will be willing too.” . Wary of China’s threat, the Taiwanese join Ukraine’s fight against Russia “If Pelosi visits Taiwan, then she’s pushing the envelope. In this case, Beijing will respond by pushing the envelope on the Taiwan issue as well. This is why the Chinese military has sent a strong message to its US counterparts,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. President Biden said on July 20 that the US military believes it is “not a good idea” for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan at this time. (Video: Reuters) Many Taiwanese security experts, however, argue that Beijing’s angry response is mostly for show and play down the possibility that China will intervene militarily to prevent a visit with risky maneuvers such as shadowing Pelosi’s plane in Taiwanese airspace. Instead, they suggest China will signal displeasure with escalating rattles, such as sending dozens of People’s Liberation Army aircraft deep into Taiwan’s air defense reconnaissance zone. Taiwan’s military said growing concerns about a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait did not lead to adjustments to military preparedness drills held across Taiwan this week. In a speech on Tuesday, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen did not express concerns about the possible visit, but warned of increasing “gray zone” tactics – coercive military maneuvers that do not stop full conflict – by authoritarian nations that disrupt the regional security balance. “In Taiwan, the focus is more on whether the US can withstand the pressure,” said Jeremy Huai-Che Chiang, a Taipei-based analyst and former researcher at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, a think tank. “Many Taiwan experts surprised by overreaction to Pelosi’s trip in US think tank community”. At stake for Taiwan is a trend of former and current officials from friendly countries who, assuming US support, are making increasingly frequent visits to Taipei despite Beijing’s censure. “If the US can’t take it anymore, what message is it sending to our allies?” Chiang asked. John Kirby, a White House spokesman, said Tuesday that the call was about the trend toward a critical international relationship. “This is one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world, in one of the most important parts of the Indo-Pacific region,” Kirby said. “And from everything from the tensions over Taiwan to the war in Ukraine, as well as How do we best manage the competition between our two nations, certainly in the economic area, there are a number of issues.” He added that Biden “wants to make sure that the lines of communication with President Xi [remain open] on all issues, whether it is issues on which we agree or issues on which we have significant difficulties.” Lyric Li in Seoul and Vic Chiang in Taipei contributed to this report.
