China had other priorities. President Jiang Zemin’s government was preparing to celebrate the return of Hong Kong and wanted to lock in Beijing’s exit from diplomatic isolation following the 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square. Gingrich, a booster of closer US-China ties, had just helped that campaign by meeting Jiang in Beijing. China has avoided a disruptive conflict with Washington. A quarter of a century later, conditions have changed dramatically. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s administration is richer, more heavily armed and less willing to compromise on Taiwan after news reports today’s speaker, Nancy Pelosi, may become the most senior US official since Gingrich to visit the island. Beijing sees any official contact with Taiwan as recognition of its democratically elected government, which the mainland says has no right to maintain foreign relations. The timing increases political pressure. Xi is widely expected to try to award himself a third five-year term as party leader at a meeting in the fall. That could be undermined if opponents can accuse Xi of failing to be tough enough on what they see as an American challenge. Pelosi has yet to confirm whether she can visit, but Beijing is warning of “coercive measures” including military action if she does. The United States “should not arrange Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan,” a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman, Tan Kefei, said on Tuesday. “If the United States goes ahead with this, the Chinese military will never watch and do nothing,” Tan said. “It will take strong measures to prevent any external interference and separatist plans for ‘Taiwan independence’ and resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Tan referred to Pelosi as “No. 3 in the U.S. government,” after being placed in the line of succession to become president. That suggests Beijing sees her as a subordinate of President Joe Biden, rather than his equal as head of one of the three independent branches of government. Biden told reporters that the US military believes a visit is “not a good idea at this time.” But, possibly in deference to her position, the president stopped short of saying Pelosi shouldn’t go. U.S. officials told The Associated Press that if Pelosi goes, the U.S. military will likely use fighter jets, ships and other forces to provide protection for her flight. Chinese rhetoric about this is “quite worrying”, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. “If requested, we will do whatever is necessary to ensure a safe visit.” U.S. officials said the administration doubts China will take direct action against Pelosi herself or try to sabotage the visit. However, they do not rule out China escalating provocative flights by military aircraft in or near Taiwan’s airspace and naval patrols in the Taiwan Straits if the trip takes place. And they do not rule out Chinese actions elsewhere in the region as a show of force. Taiwan and China split in 1949 after a civil war that ended with a Communist victory on the mainland. Both governments say they are one country, but disagree on who is the national leader. The two sides have no formal relations, but are linked by billions of dollars in trade and investment. The United States switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, but has extensive commercial and unofficial ties to the island. US law obliges Washington to ensure that Taiwan has the means to defend itself. Beijing has not hesitated to try to intimidate Taiwan with shows of force. The ruling party’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, fired missiles into the sea off Taiwan to drive voters away from then-President Lee Teng-hui in the island’s first direct presidential election in early 1996. This failed, allowing Lee to talk tough about rectitude all the way to Beijing in front of cheering supporters. He was elected with 54% of the vote in a four-way race. The US responded by sending two aircraft carrier battle groups to the region, a move that forced China to acknowledge that it could not prevent Washington from coming to the aid of Taiwan, which has helped fuel Beijing’s massive military upgrade in recent years. The following year, Gingrich led a delegation of American lawmakers to Taiwan after a three-day visit to the mainland. This followed a visit to Beijing last week by Vice President Al Gore. Previously one of Beijing’s fiercest critics in Washington on human rights and Taiwan, Gingrich praised China’s economic growth. He spoke sympathetically of the challenges Beijing will face in running Hong Kong after 150 years of British rule. He said Congress supported China’s claim to Taiwan as long as the unification was peaceful. He expressed hope that the two sides may evolve to become one state. Gingrich said he told Chinese leaders that “we will defend Taiwan,” but he said they responded that Beijing had no intention of attacking. After Gingrich’s comments, China’s foreign ministry said it was confused about US policy. “What the US government and leaders of some government branches are saying and what they promised are not the same,” ministry spokesman Shen Guofang said at the time. In the quarter-century since then, Beijing’s stance toward Taiwan has hardened and its military resources have grown. And the mainland has warned it will invade if talks to unify the two sides fail to make progress. China passed Germany and Japan to become the second largest economy behind the United States. Its military spending is also No. 2 after Washington at $293 billion in 2021 after a 27-year streak of increases, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The political landscape has also changed with the rise of Xi, who has amassed more power in the past decade than any Chinese leader since at least the 1980s and wants to be seen as restoring the country to its historic glory. This includes being more assertive abroad and stepping up pressure on Taiwan. The ruling party has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to develop fighter jets, submarines, aircraft carriers and other high-tech weapons. It is working on “killer launch” missiles believed to be intended to prevent the US Navy from defending Taiwan in the event of an attack. The PLA is sending increasing numbers of fighters and bombers to fly near Taiwan. Beijing’s larger economy and global role also give it more diplomatic tools to project its anger at Washington. The Biden administration wants Chinese cooperation on climate, the fight against the coronavirus and other global challenges, which Beijing could disrupt. Washington and Beijing are already embroiled in clashes over trade, Hong Kong, Beijing’s treatment of Muslim minorities and Chinese claims to large swaths of the South China Sea and East China Sea. Pelosi is by no means new to irritating Beijing. As a rookie congressman in 1991, he unfurled a black-and-white banner in Tiananmen Square that read, “To those who died for democracy.” This came two years after a bloody crackdown in which hundreds, perhaps thousands, were killed. Diplomatic protocol prevented Chinese police from arresting Pelosi. A visit to Taiwan could cause long-term damage to US-China relations, said Liu Jiangyong, an international relations expert at Tsinghua University. Allowing a visit to take place “will affect the credibility of recent promises made by the Biden administration,” Liu said. The dialogue between Biden and Xi on other issues “could all be seriously affected.”
AP researcher Yu Bing in Beijing and AP writers David Rising in Bangkok and Lolita C. Baldor in Sydney contributed.
