Researchers say extreme temperatures in western Europe are rising faster than expected. To find out if heatwaves were made more likely by climate change, the scientists analyzed weather data and computer simulations to compare the climate as it is today with the climate in the past, using peer-reviewed methods. They then analyzed maximum temperatures on two days of the heatwave when the UK was hit hardest by the hot weather. Extreme heat in Western Europe has increased more than climate models have predicted. While models estimate that greenhouse gas emissions raised temperatures in this heat wave by 2 degrees Celsius, historical weather records suggest that the heat wave would have been 4 degrees cooler in a world that had not been warmed by human activities. Climate experts worry that this means the effects of global warming will be even more drastic than previously thought. Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London, said: “In Europe and other parts of the world we are seeing more and more record-breaking heatwaves causing extreme temperatures that have become hotter than ,what in most climate models. “It is a worrying finding that suggests that if carbon emissions are not reduced quickly, the consequences of climate change on extreme heat in Europe, which is already extremely deadly, could be even worse than previously thought.” Although the event has become more likely due to climate change, heatwaves like this are still relatively rare. The model results suggest that there is a 1% chance of such a heat wave occurring next year. However, meteorological records suggest this could be an underestimate, as similar heat waves in Europe have occurred more frequently and are hotter than climate models suggest. The study was conducted by 21 researchers as members of the World Weather Attribution team, including scientists from universities and meteorological organizations in Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, South Africa, Switzerland, the UK, the US and New Zealand . Subscribe to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7am. BST Meteorologists said the results of this study are “depressing” as they confirm what was previously feared – that climate change is having a big impact on temperatures, making extreme heat more likely. Fraser Lott, climate monitoring and performance scientist at the Met Office, said: “Two years ago, scientists at the UK Met Office found that the chance of seeing 40C in the UK was one in 100 in any given year, from one in 1,000 in the natural climate. It was disappointing to see such an event happen so soon after this study, to see the raw data coming back from our weather stations. “This new work confirms the previous study and points us to further improvements. The latest developments, which enabled the heatwave to be predicted two weeks in advance, are now powering the next generation of climate simulations.” Experts called for a rapid reduction in emissions to prevent the situation from worsening. Extreme heat is killing thousands of people across Europe and hundreds of excess deaths in the UK are believed to have been caused by the recent heat wave. “Heat heat is the deadliest type of extreme weather in Europe, killing thousands each year,” said Roop Singh of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. “But it doesn’t have to be. Many of these deaths are preventable if adequate adaptation plans are in place. Without rapid and comprehensive adaptation and emissions cuts, the situation will get worse.”
