With high inflation and gas prices squeezing many people’s quality of life, a recession just around the corner, and faith in the government’s ability to do anything about it plummeting, it would take a remarkable turnaround to reverse the party’s course toward gains in both houses of Congress in the Nov. 8 midterm elections. More than three-quarters of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction, including nearly two-thirds of Democrats, according to poll from the Siena College Research Institute was held earlier this month for the New York Times. “It’s a staggering number,” Siena manager Dan Levy said. “That doesn’t usually bode well for a party that has these conditions.” And while most polls suggest the congressional race remains close, with some having the ruling party trailing by as much as 10 points.
Trump and Pence are looking ahead to the midterm elections
Former US President Donald Trump took advantage of what he called the “incredible opportunity” of the midterms for Republicans when he returned to Washington this week for the first time since leaving the White House last January. Speaking to an audience of Republican lawmakers, former advisers and supporters gathered at a downtown D.C. hotel, he painted a grim picture of a country brought to its knees by the Biden administration, beset by crime and diminished on the world stage. “Our country is going to hell very fast,” he said. “We have become a nation of beggars who turn to other countries for energy.” WATCHES | Trump slams Biden’s record and predicts big win in midterms:
Trump returns to Washington for the 1st time since leaving the White House
Donald Trump is back in Washington for the first time since losing the 2020 presidential election. Perhaps hoping for a comeback in 2024, he finds himself slipping at the polls. Hours earlier at a separate event, his former vice president, Mike Pence, promised a “bold and positive agenda” to bring America back from the brink. While still reluctant to discredit his former boss, who tried to get him to overturn the 2020 election, Pence tried to get some distance and positioned himself as the forward-looking face of the party. “I really think the election is about the future,” he told the national conservative student conference. “And it is absolutely necessary, at a time when so many Americans are hurting … that we not give in to the temptation to look back.” Former Vice President Mike Pence speaking at the National Conservative Student Conference in Washington on Tuesday, hours before Trump gave his speech. Pence is expected to throw his hat into the ring to run for the Republican presidential nomination. (Patrick Semansky/The Associated Press) But polls show the former vice president will have a steep hill to climb to catch Trump if both end up vying for the party’s presidential nomination. No one has yet declared their candidacy, but currently only Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is leading Trump by double digits in hypothetical runoffs. In the Siena poll, 25 percent of those who say they will vote in the Republican primary chose DeSandis as the candidate, compared to 49 percent who prefer Trump and 9 percent who chose Pence. “That’s still an overwhelming lead at this point in time,” Levy said.
Another “dominant power”
The leadership contest won’t begin in earnest until after the midterm elections, but the question of whether Trump will run is already looming large. Polls have him and Biden within three to five percentage points of each other, and there is little sign that perceptions of him within the party have changed significantly. 61 percent of Republicans still believe he won the last election and 80 percent do not believe he committed serious crimes in connection with the riot on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021, according to the Siena poll. “We don’t see any evidence of an erosion of Trump’s candidacy,” Levy said. “Trump remains the dominant force in the Republican Party.” WATCHES | The January 6 panel describes how Trump spent January 6:
New details emerge about Donald Trump’s actions during the January 6 attack
The Jan. 6 panel delves into what Donald Trump did and didn’t do as the Capitol was attacked by rioters. During the last hearing of the summer, the committee sat through the 187 minutes Trump failed to act — despite pleas from aides and allies. Levy said it may work to Trump’s advantage to announce his candidacy sooner rather than later to draw support from other would-be contenders like Ted Cruz or Nikki Haley and strengthen his position against DeSandis, but there are also fears that the announcement before the midterm elections could hurt Republicans’ chances. Kale Ogunbor, 20, voted for Trump in 2020 but wants her party to focus on the midterms, not the leadership race. “Let’s go win the election and then we can fragment it,” said the University of Pennsylvania engineering student who attended the student summit in Washington this week. Kale Ogunbor, 20, a Penn State University student who attended the student convention says she voted for Trump in the last election but thinks he’s too old to run again. (Kazi Stastna/CBC) She has not yet decided who she will endorse, but worries that, at 76, Trump is too old to run again. He would like to hear the Republican Party present more concrete solutions to the financial crisis. “You can’t keep saying, ‘Oh, the throttle is high.’ You really have to convince people why you are the ‘right’ side,” Ogunbor said. He would also like to see Republicans adopt a “message of compassion” when it comes to the abortion issue. “I’m not going to start yelling at people who don’t agree with me,” he said. “Let’s make sure ladies know what their options are and try to do our best to make abortion unthinkable just for people in general.” Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis, who was seen on stage at the Student Action USA convention in Tampa, Fla., earlier this week, is so far the only candidate in double digits besides Trump, though no one has officially declared. (Marco Bello/Reuters) Fellow student Ava Sherwood Erculiani, 19, of Evansburg, Pa., supported Trump and likes that he brought new people into the Republican Party, but wants a more moderate candidate this time. He was impressed with DeSantis’ opposition to federal COVID-19 measures and believes he could have a chance. “He didn’t listen to the federal government and he really kept Florida free,” he told the CBC’s Katie Simpson. “I think we need someone who is strong-willed and not going to be bought off by different PACs [political action committees].” WATCHES | The young DeSantis supporter explains the Florida governor’s appeal:
“I don’t know if he’s ready”
Ava Sherwood Erculiani, 19, of Evansburg, Pa., tells CBC’s Katie Simpson why she would support Gov. Ron DeSantis as her party’s candidate for U.S. president in 2024, but isn’t sure he could win the former president Donald Trump.
Trump endorsements help some but not all in primaries
Whether he announces before the midterms or not, Trump is already playing a role in state primary contests. While an endorsement from him isn’t a guarantee, it could make a difference in districts with crowded primary elections, where he can help long-shot candidates win, says Republican analyst Scott Jennings. He cites the examples of JD Vance, a venture capitalist and author of Hillbilly Elegy, and the famous surgeon Mehmet Oz, known as Dr. Oz, who won the Senate primaries in Ohio and Pennsylvania, respectively, with Trump’s help. In some cases, Jennings says, Democrats are helping the campaigns of Trump-backed candidates in the hope that they will be easier to defeat than establishment Republicans in the fall. Trump’s endorsement helped JD Vance, left, in the Republican Senate primary in Ohio last May. (Joe Maiorana/The Associated Press) In Michigan, for example, the Democratic congressional campaign committee is accused of running ads to boost the chances of a candidate who has backed election fraud claims and conspiracy theories against freshman Rep. Peter Meijer, who was one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. the uprising of January 6; It’s a risky and cynical strategy, said Jennings, who has worked on the campaigns of George W. Bush, Mitch McConnell, Mitt Romney and others. “The environment is so good for Republicans, it’s understandable to me that some of these candidates, even the poor candidates, could cross the finish line in first place,” he said. “And Democrats will have no one to blame but themselves.”
Fear of defeat could drive competitors
As for the presidential race, Jennings suspects that if Joe Biden does run, the fear of losing to him will lead some to reconsider their support for Trump. “The idea that we would lose to him or his successor is anathema to the average Republican, so to the extent that Trump puts you at risk of doing that, I think that’s going to be a very powerful message to any of his primary opponents.” . For now, as long as Republicans stay focused on the issues and don’t get distracted by a rerun of the last election, the race is theirs to lose, he said. “Any moment you’re not talking about the economy and quality of life is a minute wasted … and frankly, it’s a missed opportunity,” he said. “So my advice to Republicans: take what the universe gives you.” Campaign in a pavilion at the summit at the turning point. DeSantis is running for re-election in November. (Marco Bello/Reuters)
