The US pledged to work with Moscow on the ISS project not only because it represented peace between two previously adversary nations, but also because it could help strengthen democracy in Russia. Delegations from both countries met several times over the years in silent, shadowy meetings to hammer out the details. When the dust clears, Russia would be the one to propel the world into a new era of space travel. So Zarya’s launch wasn’t just the dawn of a new space age for the study of the universe. It was an olive branch—an olive branch that spanned decades of tension, near-nuclear conflict, and the complete reshaping of world power as we knew it. If the nations never knew peace on Earth, at least we could find it among the stars. And now, a little more than 20 years later, it may all be over with Russia too. The first module of the International Space Station Zarya is in orbit around the Earth.
NASA
On July 26, Yuri Borisov, the newly appointed head of Moscow’s Roscosmos space agency, officially announced that the country would retire from the ISS after 2024 to build its own space station. A day later, Russia clarified with NASA that it would remain on the ISS until at least 2028 — which, while technically beyond 2024, violated the original announcement. “If they don’t retire by 2028, in a sense, it’s not a big deal,” John Logsdon, former director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, told the Daily Beast. “The station is supposed to be finished in 2030 anyway. It is possible that the partners will agree on a termination date slightly earlier than 2030.” However, the country still plans to launch a new orbital outpost by 2030. In a recent interview, Vladimir Soloviev, the flight director for the Russian section of the ISS, gave some clues about the future of a Russian station, dubbed the Russian Orbital Service Station (ROSS). First, it would operate mostly autonomously with no permanent crew on board — something he stressed would be a “step forward, not backward” for humanity, according to a translation. However, this would be a clear break from one or more future commercial space stations that NASA plans to support. It’s also a departure from China’s new Tiangong space station, which is currently manned by astronauts. Rendering of Roscosmos’ planned ROSS orbital outpost fully assembled.
Roscosmos
There’s a reason these parties stick with humans over smart machines. Besides, having people in these orbital outposts allows for more hands-on research. Plus, if something goes wrong at the station (which it often does), someone can be there to fix it right away. The planned Russian station will also have a sun-synchronous orbit, meaning it would pass over Earth’s surface during local daylight hours. This would allow ROSS to easily study both poles of the Earth. It should be noted, however, that there are many research satellites in orbit around the planet that are already doing this. While it’s certainly less complex than the ISS or Tiangong, ROSS is still a huge undertaking — especially considering the ambitious goal of launching part of it into orbit by 2030. And that’s not even taking into account Roscosmos’ decidedly miserable state. “Given the state of their space industry, I’d be shocked if they could pull it off at all — let alone by 2030.” — Wendy Whitman Cobb, US Air Force School of Advanced Aviation and Space Studies “Given the state of their space industry, I’d be shocked if they could get it at all — let alone by 2030,” said Wendy Whitman Cobb, a space policy expert at the US Air Force’s School of Advanced Air and Space Studies. The Daily Beast. He added that even NASA, which is better funded and equipped than Roscosmos, would struggle to meet the 2030 deadline. “So the fact that Russia would try to create a completely new system on its own seems questionable.” “They should start now,” Logsdon explained. “And they can’t start now because they have very limited money and doing business on the ISS is very expensive.” Of course, Moscow could work with companies like China to get a station in orbit. But Cobb said Beijing has no real incentive to help them. If anything, the country’s cooperation in something like Tiangong could undermine China’s achievement, she said. Russia should also effectively be responsible in the Chinese space program for the majority of technology such as launch vehicles – something they would probably prefer to have control over. However, the plans are significant as they are the clearest indication yet that Russia intends to follow what former Roscosmos chief Dmitry Rogozin could not help but chafe at: The country is ending its decades-old practice of international cooperation and collaboration in space. Peace in the world is gone. Tensions are back on track and may be here to stay for a while…right? “You can think of astronauts as tightropes… Having people up there whose lives could be threatened makes it harder to do dangerous things that might harm those people. “ — Wendy Whitman Cobb, US Air Force School of Advanced Aviation and Space Studies Well, maybe. More likely, space continues to take second place to the consequences of geopolitical conflict on earth. “Having an orbital outpost has lost its political significance,” Logsdon said. “NASA is going to have private commercial stations. It is not high geopolitics. If Russia is building this facility, it almost makes orbital outposts so commonplace that it’s not important.” Cobb echoed the sentiment. In fact, he believes that the more outposts, labs and astronauts in orbit, the less likely they are to escalate tensions — at least in space. “You might think of astronauts as tightropes,” Cobb said. “I know it’s not nice to think of it that way. But having people up there whose lives could be threatened makes it harder to do dangerous things that might harm those people. That’s why the Russian anti-satellite test last year was so alarming. They did it very close to the ISS and there are still many pieces of debris up there that are actively threatening the astronauts.” Think of it like the theory of nuclear deterrence. If you have Russian, Chinese, and American space stations up there, they all have skin in the game—so they all have something to lose. It’s the space age equivalent of mutually assured destruction, so “all these actors think twice before doing anything really crazy,” Cobb said. Rendering of Roscosmos’ planned ROSS orbital outpost fully assembled.
Roscosmos
For Logsdon, however, Russia’s withdrawal and the goals of going it alone are a grim illustration of one of the great disappointments of the space station era: It has somewhat failed — at least when it comes to its original promise to unite the entire world in a mission larger than any country. “The impact of the ISS on Earth-related politics that was expected was very limited,” Logsdon said. “We don’t have a democratic Russia. We have Putin. We have the invasion of Ukraine. The political significance of international cooperation on the station has lost its power—if it ever had it.” But maybe that’s fine. Russia still plans to be on the ISS for the next six years. Furthermore, the orbiting lab was never meant to last forever. Even before the messy rift with Russia, it was living on borrowed time, as it has technically passed its original 15-year expiration date (although the Biden administration extended it to 2030). So perhaps it’s fitting that the very country that launched its first piece into orbit — a unit named after the dawn — should then be there as the sun sets on it for the last time.
