Heat waves are becoming more frequent and longer worldwide, and scientists say human-caused climate change is affecting all of them. To determine the human impact on extreme heat, scientists use a combination of observations and climate models or simulations. While the models are often conservative in their findings, the observed extreme heat in western Europe increased much more than estimated by the models. “While models estimate that greenhouse gas emissions increased temperatures in this heatwave by 2˚C, historical meteorological records show that the heatwave would have been 4˚C cooler in a world that had not been warmed by human activities,” WWA said in a press release. . “This suggests that the models are underestimating the true impact of human-induced climate change on high temperatures in the UK and other parts of Western Europe. It also means that the results of the analysis are conservative and climate change has likely increased the frequency of event more than the factor of 10 estimated by the study.’ The United Kingdom last week saw high temperatures rise above 40 degrees Celsius (104.5 degrees Fahrenheit) for the first time on record on July 19, reaching 40.3 degrees Celsius in the English village of Coningsby. The British government has issued the first red-level extreme heat warning for several parts of England, including the capital, London. As temperatures rose, the country’s infrastructure buckled. The train tracks are bent out of shape. an airport runway melted. London’s fire service declared a “major incident” as a number of fires broke out in what the service said were its busiest days since World War II. People were advised to work from home, some schools were closed, and hospitals and emergency services were stretched to their limits. “In Europe and other parts of the world we are seeing more and more record heatwaves causing extreme temperatures that have become hotter than in most climate models,” said Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London . leads the WWA project. “It is a worrying finding that suggests that if carbon emissions are not reduced quickly, the consequences of climate change on extreme heat in Europe, which is already extremely deadly, could be even worse than previously thought.” Every fraction of a degree of global warming will worsen the effects of the climate crisis. The world has already warmed around 1.2 degrees Celsius on average, and there is a growing consensus that humans should try to keep warming to 1.5 degrees to avoid tipping points, where some ecosystems on which the Earth relies for its ecological balance they may struggle to recover. The scientists said the model results also showed that a heat wave as intense as last week’s in the UK is “still rare in today’s climate”, with a 1% chance of happening every year. However, once again the meteorological records suggest that the computer simulation results are conservative and similar extreme heat events are likely to occur more frequently as well. In response to the publication of the new WWA analysis, Dr Radhika Khosla from the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, praised the scientists for their speed. “By conducting rapid analysis based on established, peer-reviewed methods, the WWA team is able to bring evidence-based results to the public domain while we can all still remember the major disruptions from last week’s extreme heat .This is the latest in a series of studies that all show the same result: climate change is making heat waves more likely and more intense,” Khosla said. “The level of heat the UK is now experiencing is dangerous: it is taking a toll on our infrastructure, economy, food and education systems and our bodies. As the study points out, many UK homes are becoming uninhabitable in extreme heat. Adapt The rise of temperature, building resilience to heat with sustainable approaches and protecting people is an urgent priority as unprecedented temperatures become the norm.” Peter Stott, climate performance scientist at the UK Met Office, said this would not be the last time the country would have to deal with such extremes. “Temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius will occur again, possibly in the coming years and quite possibly in the coming decades,” Stott said. “Only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions can we reduce the risks of such extreme events becoming more frequent.” CNN’s Angela Dewan and Rachel Ramirez contributed to this report.
