It could land as one piece, but more likely as several, scattered over an area up to several hundred miles wide. Scientists have narrowed down the potential impact zone to the latitudes of 41 degrees north and 41 degrees south, an area that covers much of the US and South America, Africa, the Middle East, most of Asia and all of Australia except from the island of Tasmania. Beyond that, predictions are dubious. “A few hours after it re-enters the atmosphere, we’ll know where it was,” said Dr. Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. “A few hours earlier we might know when to do it within three hours… But in that time the rocket goes all the way around the Earth at 17,000 miles an hour. So if you’re an hour out, you’re also 17,000 miles away.” In all likelihood, the space junk ejected from China’s Long March 5B launch last Sunday will not hit a residential area. Despite the fact that 80% of the world’s people live in the danger zone, only 0.1% of it is considered inhabited. “Everything else is ocean, forest or farmland,” said Dr Shane Walsh, a researcher at the International Center for Radio Astronomy Research. “It is extremely unlikely to cause damage or loss of life.” Space watchers may not be too worried, but they aren’t too happy about the situation either. The impact will be similar to a small plane crash, experts say, and likely far less deadly than the missile attacks and accidents that occur elsewhere every day. But the risk could be mitigated. Sunday’s launch was the third of the 5B series, delivering a new laboratory module to the Tiangong space station. Most nations’ missiles separate the launcher from the payload before leaving the atmosphere, with an additional engine on the payload providing a final boost and allowing the launcher to fall more predictably. But China appears unwilling to spend weight on the second engine, and its 5B rocket – one of the largest in use – is fully boosted into orbit before separating. The bus-sized launch vehicle then travels in orbit for days or weeks before re-entering Earth’s atmosphere. Somewhere. In May 2020, two villages in Côte d’Ivoire were hit by objects – including a 12m long pipe section – that appeared to come from a Chinese Long March 5B that was expected to land that day. Debris that fell from space in the village of N’Guessankro, in central Ivory Coast, in 2020. Photo: AFP/Getty Images After the second 5B launcher landed safely in seas near the Maldives last year, a Nasa administrator, Bill Nelson, accused China of “lacking responsible standards regarding its space junk.” Chinese authorities reject the accusation. This week, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Chinese space exploration had always acted “in accordance with international law and … customary practice” and the chance of debris causing harm was “extremely low”. Zhao said the module was designed with unspecified “special technology” and the “vast majority” of its components would burn up during re-entry into the atmosphere. Walsh said: “They claim to have learned from the last two launches and added some method of control, but the EU’s monitoring network has shown that this unit is falling, which means it is not controlled.” Professor Chao Chi-Kuang, head of the space science department at National Taiwan University, noted that there have been other uncontrolled re-entries of debris hitting Earth, and not just from China. As you know, Nasa was fined $400 for littering when parts of the Skylab space station hit Western Australia in the 1970s. (It still hasn’t paid.) Chao said China’s launches were more unpredictable and with larger pieces, and “of course people are afraid in this case,” but he also blamed the media for concern. “People think there is something very heavy and big above our heads. But I think if China can prevent the damage, it will prevent it,” he said. If the debris hits something or, worse, someone, the people affected will be liable for compensation. But otherwise there are no international rules to prevent or limit uncontrolled re-entries. “It’s an interesting quirk of space law that if you do damage you’re responsible for it, but if you do something dangerous and get away with it … then you get away with it,” McDowell said. The US and EU have incorporated risk assessments and will not start if there is a greater than one in 10,000 chance of injury. China seems to have a much lower bar. In April, villagers in a remote area of ​​India found what appeared to be large parts of a Chinese Long March 3B missile that was launched in February. Launches from the Xichang Inland Satellite Launch Site routinely rain down on communities, with officials issuing evacuation notices for residents to “quickly adjust your location”. Walsh said China was rightly proud of its space program and that the launches should be a public relations coup. Instead, there are global headlines with varying levels of alarm. McDowell and Walsh hope the bad publicity will encourage changes in future releases. “I think they’re a little embarrassed by the bad publicity,” McDowell said. “I think they know this is seen as a problem now. They may never admit it, but we may see – without mentioning it – that the next generation [of rockets] he will behave better and re-enter more safely.’