With the trade deadline just days away, general manager Ross Atkins is looking for ways to improve his team. Not just to get to the playoffs, but to win once they get there. Nothing about their recent hot streak will deter him from making moves to improve his squad. The losing streak is still fresh in his mind. He knows how quickly things can change. The team’s needs haven’t changed much in July. In order of priority, the Jays need: another starting pitcher, bullpen depth and a big bat. Pitching needs are more critical. Ideally, they would trade for a guy who could take the ball in a playoff series and win a big game. If they don’t get an ace, then they need a second champion that can predictably give them a chance to win every out. If they settle for a smaller starting spot, then they should focus on getting stronger relievers. They could really use another left-handed reliever who can get big outs in the 8th or 9th innings. They need a veteran reliever who can save the game at any point in the game. Sometimes games have to be saved in the 6th and 7th innings. This lefty would complement Jordan Romano in high leverage situations. Offensively, Toronto could use another big bat in the lineup. Realistically, this hitter would mostly serve as a designated hitter. Ideally, he would pitch left-handed to better balance the lineup, which is a bit right-handed dominant. Or, even better, it would be a switch. But mostly, they just need him to be a good professional hitter.
Reading the trade market
When general managers make their calls this time of year, they are juggling a number of parallel negotiations. GMs should have a Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, and Plan D for each need they want to fill. So, Atkins needs to determine who might be the best starter, reliever and pitcher for this team. But the reality is that no team has the prospect capital, financial flexibility or good fortune to acquire the best players available in multiple areas of need. In their talks with other clubs, general managers gauge the suitability of the players they are considering acquiring: the cost of the acquisition and the timeline for when a deal might happen. It’s a juggling act trying to stay involved in all the conversations while navigating the best outcome from 6:00 p.m. ET on August 2. Atkins will have to weigh his ability to get Reds ace Luis Castillo or first baseman Frankie Montas into the starting rotation. Knowing that if he gets one of those he will cost so much that he will likely have to settle for less relievers and offensive help. If he can’t get one of the aces, then he needs to make sure he has a stronger reliever and hitter tandem. If he has a lower start and can’t land the relievers he would prefer, then the quality of the hitter should be higher. There are many moving parts that require the general manager to be nimble and smart. There is an art to keeping each deal alive and figuring out what is the best combination of players to acquire and at what cost. It is important that the Jays make moves to address their needs. Have you ever sat in a car in traffic and felt like you were rolling backwards, but it was just an illusion because the traffic was actually the cars next to you rolling forward? That’s what it feels like at the trade deadline when the teams around your club in the standings are making deals and improving and you’re not. You feel like you’ve gotten worse. General managers recognize this sentiment and its impact. Players want to see effort and commitment from their front office. As a general manager, I couldn’t throw a pitch or hit the ball. But at the trade deadline, it was my time to compete. I wanted to beat the deadline. I knew there were other good teams and aggressive general managers, but I believed that a GM who made the right deals could manipulate the roster in a way that would get his team to the playoffs and win. Look at the Atlanta Braves last season. Former Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos added four outfielders at the deadline (Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson and Jorge Soler) and soon after they passed the Mets, who had been in first place for over 100 days. They were riding the wave of momentum all the way to the World Championships.
Is demand outstripping supply this year?
The expanded playoff format adds another interesting twist to the trade deadline. There are now six teams in each league that will make the playoffs. the three category winners and the three wild cards. The top two division winners by record get a bye in the first round, while the third division winner plays the third wild card team and the first and second wild card teams play each other. The highest ranked teams will host all games in a best-of-three series.
The law of supply and demand applies to baseball as it does to the economy. The more teams in the playoff chase, the greater the demand for signing players at the trade deadline. The asking price from sellers will be marginally higher for talent this year due to a greater opportunity to play in October.
An example is the Yankees’ acquisition of Royals outfielder Andrew Benintendi on Wednesday night. The Yankees need starting pitching and bullpen help and a left-handed hitting outfielder. There was speculation that he would be all-in for Nationals shortstop Juan Soto. Instead, Yankee GM Brian Cashman made a preemptive strike to get Benintendi. Cashman realized that his biggest need is to play above the offense (they have scored the most runs in baseball). So instead of putting all his eggs in Soto’s basket, he made a deal to get the Plan B pick. He moved quickly before some of the teams in the bubble decided if they were buyers or sellers.
Cashman read the supply and demand scale in the market. He also had to prioritize his needs. By making the deal for the Plan B outfielder, he still has leveraged prospects to put in upgrades. Now there is one less outfielder on the market, so as the supply goes down, the price will go up for others to acquire a bat. Meanwhile, Cashman can use the rest of his trade marks on the pitching market.
Whichever team wins the World Series in 2022, trade deadline acquisitions will likely be a big reason why they were successful. I can’t wait to see which moves turn out to be the most impressive.
