The ONS estimates, based on swabs collected from randomly selected households, suggest that the number of people infected in the UK fell by 586,400 in the week ending 20 July. Covid rates remain near an all-time high, however, with an estimated 3,173,800 people, about 1 in 19, testing positive across the country in the most recent week surveyed. There has been a similar drop in hospital Covid infections, with the UK’s Health Safety Agency reporting on Thursday that rates of Covid cases fell across all age groups, regions and ethnic groups in the third week of July. The highest case rates are people over 80, the most vulnerable to severe Covid. According to ONS figures, the number of infections in England fell in the week ending July 20, with 1 in 20 infected, compared with 1 in 17 the previous week. In Scotland and Wales estimated infection rates fell to 1 in 19, but in Northern Ireland the trend was uncertain, with 1 in 16 estimated to be positive, down from 1 in 20 the previous week. “Our latest data suggests we may now be past the peak of the latest wave of infections across the UK, although rates still remain among the highest seen during the pandemic,” said Sarah Crofts, head of the detailed results for the ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey. “We have seen welcome reductions in most parts of the UK and across all age groups. With the summer holidays starting and more people traveling, we will continue to monitor the data closely,” he added. The latest wave of Covid is the third to hit the UK since December. The first wave, powered by the original Omicron BA.1 variant, was quickly followed by a second wave in March powered by the Omicron BA.2 sub-variant. At the peak of the second wave, a record 4.9 million people were infected in one week, about 1 in 13 of the population. The latest wave has been fueled by two more Omicron sub-variants, namely the BA.4 and BA.5, which started gaining ground in June, although the BA.5 now accounts for more than three-quarters of UK cases. It is unclear whether BA.5 is spreading faster because of its higher transmissibility, its ability to evade vaccine immunity and previous infections, or a mixture of both. Covid rates fell in all regions of England except the North East and across all age groups, the ONS found. Jonathan Ball, professor of molecular virology at the University of Nottingham, said government testing data indicated a drop in Covid cases and the latest ONS results, which lag behind the real-time situation, confirmed this. “This is great news, but of course we will see future outbreaks as our immune systems contract and new variants emerge,” he said. “It is always difficult to predict when the next wave will occur, but the chances will increase as we approach the autumn and winter period – a time when many respiratory infections are around.” Public health officials worry that fall and winter could bring a resurgence of the flu and another wave of Covid. Following advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization, all people aged 50 and over, frontline health and social care workers, residents of aged care homes and others who are clinically vulnerable will be offered flu and Covid vaccines for reducing cases of serious illness. “Given the inevitability of a new wave of infections, it is incredibly important to strengthen the most vulnerable in our community, both for Covid-19 and for influenza,” Ball added. Dr Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, said: “It is encouraging that we appear to have reached the peak of infections, but prevalence remains incredibly high with around 1 in 20 people infected in the past week. “Hospitalizations have also peaked, but it is likely that the increase in deaths we are seeing will continue to increase. Furthermore, this high prevalence will unfortunately translate into higher cases of Covid. Subscribe to First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every morning at 7am. BST “Looking ahead, it is quite clear that we can expect further waves during 2022, which may also coincide with a predicted increase in influenza in the autumn. This makes it essential to have a comprehensive vaccine plan and look to minimize the impact of infections in the future.”
